PropFirmReality
Part 5 of 6

Survivorship Bias & Social Media

6 min read

What You See vs. What's Real

Social Media Feed
$12K payout screenshot
$8K payout proof
"Just passed my eval!"
$5K withdrawal
"Funded in 3 days!"
~7 visible success stories
What Actually Happened
Failed eval (silent)
Failed eval (silent)
Failed eval (silent)
Blew funded account (silent)
Quit trading (silent)
... × 930 more
~930 silent failures

The Social Media Illusion

Open Twitter, YouTube, or TikTok and search for prop firm trading. You'll see an endless stream of payout screenshots, funded account celebrations, and "I quit my 9-5" stories. It looks like everyone is making money.

They're not. Here's what's happening:

  • Winners are incentivized to post. They get affiliate commissions, course sales, and social media growth from showing wins.
  • Losers have no reason to post. Nobody shares "I just blew my 4th evaluation and I'm down $800." It's embarrassing.
  • The algorithm amplifies success. Positive, aspirational content gets more engagement. Failure content gets buried.
  • Some firms require proof-of-payout posts. It's literally a condition for bonuses or promotions at some companies.

The Numbers Behind the Screenshots

Let's trace what actually happens to 1,000 traders who start a prop firm evaluation:

1,000 start eval
~140 pass (14%)
~70 get a payout (7%)
~15 are consistent (1.5%)
~7 post online (0.7%)

You see those 7 success stories and assume the game is winnable for most people. You don't see the 930 who lost money, the 860 who never even passed, or the 55 who passed but never received a payout.

This is survivorship bias: drawing conclusions from only the visible survivors while ignoring the invisible majority who didn't make it.

How Prop Firms Use This

Leaderboards

Show the top 10 or top 50 performers. Never show the bottom 10,000. A leaderboard of the top 0.1% creates an illusion that the top is achievable.

"We've Paid Out $X Million"

FTMO paid $300K+/day in payouts by 2024. Sounds impressive until you realize they collected far more in evaluation fees. The payout figure is marketing, not evidence of trader success rates.

Testimonials

Self-selecting sample. Only satisfied customers leave reviews. A firm with 100,000 traders and a 7% payout rate still has 7,000 happy customers to feature.

Affiliate Programs

Traders get $20-$100 per referral signup. This creates an army of promoters who are financially motivated to make prop trading look easy and profitable.

Red Flags to Watch For

  • "I made $10K my first month" — No mention of how many attempts, how much spent on fees, or how many accounts blown previously.
  • Lifestyle content — Lamborghinis, watches, Dubai. Almost always funded by course sales and affiliate income, not by trading profits.
  • "Anyone can do this" — If 93% fail, this is statistically false. It's marketing, not education.
  • Guaranteed results — No strategy has guaranteed results. If someone promises one, they're selling, not trading.

How to Reality-Check Any Claim

Before taking any trading advice seriously, ask:

  1. What's their total spend? Not just their biggest payout, but total fees paid across all evaluations, resets, and subscriptions.
  2. What's their net P&L? Payouts minus all costs. Many "profitable" traders are net negative when you include everything.
  3. Are they selling something? A course, a signal service, an affiliate link? Follow the real revenue stream.
  4. Do they show losses too? Legitimate educators show the full picture. If someone only shows wins, they're curating an image, not teaching.
  5. How long have they been doing this? A 3-month track record means nothing. Anyone can have a lucky quarter.

Sources

  1. FPFX Tech funded trader analysis — Finance Magnates
  2. FTMO payout statistics — FTMO
  3. Prop Firm Statistics — Vetted Prop Firms
  4. Getting Paid by Prop Firms — EarnForex