The Numbers Don't Lie
In 2024, FPFX Tech published one of the most comprehensive studies of proprietary trading firm performance ever conducted. They analyzed over 300,000 prop trading accounts across 100,000 individual traders at 10 different firms.
The findings were stark:
- Only 14% of traders passed their evaluation challenge
- Just 7% of all traders ever received a single payout
- The average payout was approximately 4% of the funded account size
- Less than 15% of funded traders generated consistent profits over a full year
These aren't cherry-picked numbers from one bad firm. This is aggregated data across the industry. The pattern is consistent: the vast majority of traders who enter prop firm evaluations will never see a dollar of profit.
The Brazil Study: 97% Lose
In 2019, researchers Fernando Chague and Rodrigo De-Losso at the University of Sao Paulo published a landmark study on day trading in the Brazilian equity futures market — the third largest in the world by volume.
They tracked 19,646 individuals who began day trading futures between 2013 and 2015. Among those who persisted for at least 300 days:
- 97% lost money over the study period
- 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54/day)
- #1 The top earner made US$310/day — with a standard deviation of US$2,560 (massive risk)
Perhaps the most disturbing finding: performance got worse with experience, not better. The researchers concluded that "it is virtually impossible for an individual to day trade for a living."
This matters for prop firm traders because you're day trading futures — the exact same asset class studied. The base rate hasn't changed just because a firm is providing the capital.
The 90/90/90 Rule
The "90/90/90 rule" is trading folklore — but the actual research backs it up and then some:
- 90% of day traders lose money overall
- 40% quit within the first month
- Only 13% remain active after 3 years
- Among persistent traders, only 1.6% are profitable after fees
One point of nuance: multiple studies have found that the profitable minority were not simply lucky. Their performance was statistically consistent and non-random. A real edge exists — it's just exceedingly rare, and most people never develop one.
Why Prop Firms Make It Even Harder
The general day trading statistics are already grim. Prop firm structures add additional constraints that make success even more difficult:
Tighter Drawdown Limits
Most prop firms cap your max drawdown at 4-6% of account size. On a $50K account, that's $2,000-$3,000 of total room. Normal trading variance can eat through this without a single "bad" trade — just an unlucky sequence. Use our Variance Calculator to see for yourself.
Trailing Drawdowns
Many firms use trailing drawdowns — your max loss level moves up as your account peaks. This means a $1,000 gain followed by a $1,500 pullback can breach your limit, even though you'd be fine on a personal account. The math is counterintuitive and punishes normal equity curve fluctuations.
Consistency Rules
Rules like "no single day can exceed 30-50% of total profit" eliminate many viable strategies. A swing trader who catches one big move — a perfectly legitimate approach — may fail the consistency check even while being net profitable.
Monthly Fee Pressure
Paying $49-$250/month creates psychological urgency. You start taking trades you shouldn't to "justify" the fee. This urgency is exactly the wrong mindset for consistent trading.
So What?
None of this means you can't succeed. The 5-7% who do are real. But going in without understanding the base rate is like starting a restaurant without knowing that 60% fail in the first year.
The point isn't to discourage you. It's to arm you with the same data that the firms already have. They know these numbers — it's literally their business model. You should know them too.
Next: The Real Cost of Getting Funded — what you'll actually spend.
Sources
- FPFX Tech analysis of 300,000+ prop trading accounts — Finance Magnates (2024)
- Chague, F., De-Losso, R., Giovannetti, B. — "Day Trading for a Living?" — University of Sao Paulo / SSRN (2019)
- Prop Firm Statistics 2026 — QuantVPS
- Day Trading Statistics — Quantified Strategies
- The Funded Trader pass rate report — Finance Magnates